Success Stories

Improved purchase order forecasting & expense category volatility to create reliable forecasting regimen

About the client

A leading US healthcare provider

Problems:

  • The customer was witnessing a significant variance in the Purchase order (PO) issued and total spend at the hospital level resulting in incorrect capital allocation.
  • Lack of granular forecasting of PO submissions by its hospital partners broken down by on-contract, off-contract, and expense categories (EOCs)
  • Poor understanding of PO volatility across expense categories (i.e., EOCs) for each hospital

Solution:

  • Innover developed ensemble ML model (XGB + Seasonal ARIMAX) to accurately capture the Total PO trend, including weekly/monthly growth and seasonality.
  • Incorporated lagged values of the previous three weeks to account for recency effect
  • Addressed week-to-week volatility through noise component adjustment
  • Developed causal models to estimate EOC level share of expense and the week-over-week volatility index

Impact Delivered:

50%

improvement in forecasting accuracy

Partners

Partnership with Adobe | Our Partners
Partnership with Argos Labs | Our Partners
Partnership with Arctic Wolf | Our Partners
Partnership with Baxter Planning | Our Partners
Partnership with Blitzz | Our Partners
Partnership with BlueLeap | Our Partners
Partnership with Conversight.ai | Our Partners
Partnership with Field Nation | Our Partners
Partnership with Microsoft | Our Partners
Partnership with Rank | Our Partners
Partnership with RedLambda | Our Partners
Partnership with Vertex | Our Partners

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